12/28/2021

With the first day of the trading week being largely risk-on, today was risk-off. Soybeans were able to absorb some weakness to finish 3-5 lower and corn gave up yesterday's gains, settling 8-10 cents in the red and near the daily lows. After rallying for the better part of December, it's not surprising to see soybeans fall victim to some position liquidation. In my mind, it's likely we see soybean values somewhat hold into the new year. The added length in soybeans by fund managers has them in good shape to turn over the calendar and start 2022 with a profitable month which lends me to think that January 3rd could be an interesting day for trade. Will we know enough of the situation in Brazil to fuel another bull run or will that new information send us the other direction? Volume will likely continue to thin as we get closer to another holiday so be ready with sell orders to catch the crazy if it happens in the final few days of the year. The chatter continues to be about South American weather. At some point it needs to become more than just hype and trade will need to see some hard evidence of a true problem in Brazil. Corn will continue to key direction off of soybeans in the short-term. There were no USDA reports or sales announcements today. Reminder: if you have any grain priced with Glacial Plains that you have not taken payment on, you have until December 30th to designate it for deferred payment.

March corn traded through its next high at 616’4 before finishing the day with a big reversal on the daily chart.
January soybeans completed 62% retracement from its harvest low to the contract high today. This retracement level is an area that is often met with position off-setting, followed by a move back to the 38% level, with trade typically finding some comfort either side of the 50% line after that.