12/27/2022

Dec 27, 2022


12/27/2022
Grains followed crude oil's lead the first day back from Christmas break. A combination of crude oil futures opening significantly higher and China announcing they would be ending all covid restrictions Monday night spurred funds to add fresh length. Corn and soybeans both gapped higher at the 8:30 a.m. cold open. Corn finished the day firmly 4-8 cents higher and near its intraday highs. Soybeans traded 16-37 cents higher, setting new 6-month highs before fading back quickly after updated weather models put a fair amount of precipitation into the South American forecast. The USDA announced a sale of corn to Japan that included 7,500 tonnes for delivery in 2022/23 and 170,000 tonnes for delivery in 2023/24. Weekly export inspections came in at the top end of expectations with 856k tonnes of corn and 1.753 mln tonnes of soybeans inspected last week. Shipment pace for corn is short of the USDA target by 176 million bushels, improving from 186 million last week. Soybean shipment pace is short of the USDA target by 24 million bushels versus 33 million bushels last week.

A poor technical look for anyone bullish soybeans. After appearing to break out to the high side, setting new 6 month highs, soybeans reversed lower, and finished weak. Mostly closing below the opening marks on the day. Set up for a classic “bull trap.” China opening faster is supportive but around the mid-day point, trade questioned if that means $15 beans with an expected big Brazil soybean crop that began early harvest last week.
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Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.