12/22/2023

Dec 22, 2023


A very uneventful day of trade to take us into the holiday weekend.  Corn floated back-and-forth, keeping within two cents of unchanged throughout the day.  It was option expiration day for January soybeans and it appeared that there was an agenda in place to make sure January soybeans were pinned at, or near, 1300 at the close.  We did trade to 11 cents higher overnight.  It was an extremely quiet day with no new headlines or USDA announcements.  We finish with corn ranging from fractional to 1 cent higher and soybeans gaining 2-5 cents.  Markets will now remain closed until 8:30 Tuesday morning.

Corn consolidating towards a breakout on our final production report day in 3 weeks.

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May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.