12/22/2021

Overnight, corn and soybeans surged again with the corn front month finally breaking through the 600'0-mark midway through the session.  This comes just one day after soybeans broke through the 1300'0 level.  Funds and spec money followed through to bid and buy on a steady forecast in South America, not necessarily a forecast that has been continually changing to favor more dryness.  Now that we hit some bench mark type prices, what will the funds do?  They’re the only buyers right now.  The export sales have been quiet and I don't expect to see any large volume purchases being made at these price levels unless there’s an indication of a REAL problem in South America or we get a large price break on the board, especially when US corn and soybeans are already a premium globally.  End users are claiming good coverage out into February and the PNW market has been extremely quiet making it more important to watch basis into the spring and summer than it is the front month cash prices.  The path of least resistance for basis is to widen.  The weekly ethanol report showed output down 36,000 barrels/day to 1.05 million bpd.  Ethanol stocks were lowered 178,000 barrels to 20.71 million barrels.  We had a very active day of cash sales and it's good to see so many taking advantage of some good prices!  Markets will trade a full session tomorrow and then will remain closed until Sunday night.

The soybean charts are indicating a possible run to the 1365'0. This would be our next retracement level on the weekly nearest chart and would also mark a 62% retracement off our most recent low to the contract high on Jan 2022.