12/21/2022

Dec 21, 2022


12/21/2022
Corn ended Wednesday 2-10 cents higher in firm fashion with the March 2023 contract trading fresh 3-week highs. Soybeans traded either side of unchanged, closing 1-4 cents higher out to the November 2023 contract, supported mostly on rumors of some fresh China business. There were no export sale announcements this morning but today's rally in corn sparked some farmer selling. Weekly ethanol data showed output down 32,000 barrels per day to 1.03 mln bpd and stocks off 342,000 barrels to 24.07 mln bbls. Corn use for ethanol is very close to the pace needed to meet the USDA forecast for the 2022/23 marketing year. Corn basis is showing signs of cracking with rail business stagnant and poor ethanol margins. The markets will trade a full session on Friday and will remain closed until 8:30am next Tuesday, Dec 27. Glacial Plains will be closed December 26.

Corn broke out of it’s down trend channel to the high side today. Assuming follow-through buying comes in for the final 2 days of trade this week, we’re looking at a move back into the 670’s as a big possibility. The 200-day moving average, finishing the day at 677’2, would be a prime target on a quick rally.
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Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.