12/20/2022

Dec 20, 2022


12/20/2022
Corn and soybeans spent Tuesday reclaiming Monday's losses. Soybeans traded steady around 5 higher and held its gains going into the coffee break where a flood of buying came in at the 8:30 open. Corn was a follower. There were no official reports or sale announcements, so a very quiet day that really had no big stories, just light volume trading technical signs to a firmly higher finish. Circling back to yesterday's better-than-expected weekly export inspections report, corn shipments to date fall short of the pace needed to hit the USDA target by 186 million bushels versus 171 million bushels the previous week. Soybean inspection pace continues to slowly close the deficit to the USDA target, now short by 33 million bushels.

Corn and soybeans continue to coil/tighten within range. The tighter this pattern becomes, the bigger the breakout will be. We hit the top side of our wedge today in soybeans and trade will likely look at profit taking off of fresh length tomorrow.
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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.