12/20/2021

Corn opened higher overnight to start to the week but traded lower for a majority of the day.  So far, the front month for corn has failed to touch to the 600'0 mark on its most current move.  The market doesn’t seem comfortable here and at some point, we will need to breach 600'0 or sell-off and start over.  I find it particularly interesting that one or the other hasn't happened given the number of times corn has tried to break through recently.  When do the funds consider the move failed?  If you haven't priced some of both old and new crop at current levels, think heavily on it.  Soybeans were firm/stronger to start the week, with 2-7 cents higher catching most of the board.  Traders continue to try and apply a bullish twist on the extended forecast favoring dry weather in South America.  From a futures aspect, the current situation feels similar to corn.  It appeared we were going to test 1300'0 on the front month contract at 8:30am open this morning but buying dried up quickly, leaving us about 4 cents short.  At some point, funds will liquidate their length below 1300'0 or buy the breakout higher.  Weekly export inspections were within estimated ranges with corn posting a solid 1.002 mln tonnes inspected for shipment and soybeans on the lower end of expectations at 1.679 mln tonnes.  The shipment deficit for corn continues to grow and is now 186 million bushels behind the pace needed to hit the USDA target vs 170 million the week prior.  Soybean shipments exceed their needed pace by 9 million bushels vs 10 million the previous week.