12/2/2022

Corn and soybeans traded in opposite directions with soybeans bouncing back after the prior day's steep losses, able to re-gain 8-11 cents. Price action in corn featured sharply lower trade with the front months settling double-digits lower and other contracts closing 2-9 cents lower from July 2023 and further out. Just like there was no reason from one day to another for soybeans to trade 40 cents down, today's losses in corn felt very exaggerated considering any news was virtually non-existent. Corn and soybean planting pace in Argentina is slower than average but they continue to advance and maintain the gap. With this week's pull back in corn futures, hopefully we are able to generate some much-needed fresh corn export demand next week. Canada's corn crop was much better this year and their appetite for U.S. corn will be much closer to average. The number of deliveries against the December futures and how the corn spreads have weakened since first notice tells us that this year's crop is definitely not short. Pricing some 2023 new crop corn and soybeans close to $6.00 and $14.00 futures may not be the worst idea.

A sharp sell-off in corn to end the week in what looked like funds shedding some length to begin a new month. Trade may be looking to target the downside gap on the March contract at 638. With the 50% retracement from our October high to July low nearby at 640’2, this creates a legitimate technical objective for funds.