Dec 02, 2021

The market flexes some strength overnight with small grains once again leading the move.  Oats and all three classes of wheat bounced higher after some limit lower closes earlier in the week.  The USDA's October soybean crush report came in at 197 million bushels, above the trade average estimate of 195.6 mln.  I mentioned earlier this week I was expecting some export business to get done on the post-Thanksgiving soybean price break.  At 8 a.m. this morning, the USDA confirmed two soybean export sales for the 2021/22 marketing year of 130,000 tonnes to China and 164,100 tonnes to unknown (a rough total of 10.85 million bushels).  After being deathly quiet for almost all of November, the PNW market has woken up a bit.  Weekly net export sales were mostly as expected for last week with 1.02 mln tonnes of corn and 1.06 mln tonnes of soybeans sold.  Wheat underperformed with only 80k tonnes sold, well below the bottom estimate of 250k tonnes.  For those curious, my current number for corn is the 5.90-6.00 futures area and soybeans in the 12.60-12.70 futures if you are looking for a spot to set some sales.  For new crop, look at the 5.60 area on December 22 corn and 12.45 on November 22 beans as a spot to set hedges.

Spring wheat has been trading around 13 year highs for that past month or so.  1062’4 is a major resistance level that has the potential of creating a quadruple top.  Need a weekly close on the front month contract above the 1062’4 mark to open the door for another major move higher.wheat.jpg

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