Grain > Commentary > 12-19-2023

12/19/2023

Dec 19, 2023

Soybeans and corn both lower as we lack anything fresh and old news once again churns through the market.  The soybean market continues to discount the poor weather and conditions in Brazil as the overall production estimates still remain well above last year's production.  Corn continues in a narrow, range bound pattern, burdened by a large U.S. carryout and stocks-to-use ratio.  Crop scouts and agencies have stubbornly left corn production estimates for South America unchanged for the most part.  With less than 2 weeks remaining in the calendar year, it feels like trade has shut it down until we enter 2025 unless some type of market surprise happens.  The USDA did confirm another soybean sale this morning.  The announcement was for 132,000 tonnes of soybeans to unknown for delivery in the 2023/24 marketing year.

Reminder: Glacial Plains will be closed on Monday, December 25 for Christmas.

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2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.