Grain > Commentary > 12-19-2023

12/19/2023

Dec 19, 2023

Soybeans and corn both lower as we lack anything fresh and old news once again churns through the market.  The soybean market continues to discount the poor weather and conditions in Brazil as the overall production estimates still remain well above last year's production.  Corn continues in a narrow, range bound pattern, burdened by a large U.S. carryout and stocks-to-use ratio.  Crop scouts and agencies have stubbornly left corn production estimates for South America unchanged for the most part.  With less than 2 weeks remaining in the calendar year, it feels like trade has shut it down until we enter 2025 unless some type of market surprise happens.  The USDA did confirm another soybean sale this morning.  The announcement was for 132,000 tonnes of soybeans to unknown for delivery in the 2023/24 marketing year.

Reminder: Glacial Plains will be closed on Monday, December 25 for Christmas.

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7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
5/12/2026
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.