12/18/2023

Dec 18, 2023


Soybeans continue to improve, keeping intact a short-term trend of day-to-day higher lows on the chart. The corn market continued on in uneventful trade. We are still waiting for something spark and create some excitement. After a short rally to begin December, it looks like we may once again test out the fresh lows set in November. Weekly export inspections were encouraging with corn and soybeans both reported at the top-end of expectations with 947k tonnes and 1.412 mln tonnes respectively. That was a 3-week high for soybeans and a nice recovery towards average pace after some poor showings. Corn inspections were above average for the week. Shipment pace for corn has improved to 14 million bushels behind the USDA forecast versus 23 million bushels behind last week. Soybeans inspection pace slipped this week, from 7 million bushels short last week to 11 million bushels short this week.

Watching the forecasts and what precipitation materializes in South America as the crop nears the finishing phase.

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Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.