12/17/2021

Dec 17, 2021


12/17/2021
Money was strong on the buying side at the 8:30am open after an overnight session that featured mostly quiet, two-sided trade.  The corn board finished mixed after March corn traded through its nearest high of 596'6 and topping out at 598'6 before retreating.  On a technical basis, corn bulls would have liked to see the week close above that previous high.  Soybeans shared a very similar story with corn, today, the most recent focus for trade has been the nearest high of 1289'2 on the January contract.  After trading through this mark and setting a new short-term high of 1297'4 this morning, the market quickly retreated below the old high.  I think it's important to note that May corn and March soybean contracts DID NOT eclipse their most recent chart highs.  Today's action was front loaded with new crop corn trading a 5-cent range and new crop beans not straying much more than nickel from unchanged.  It's likely to see some resistance at the 600'0 and 1300'0 levels in corn and soybeans.  Today's push in soybeans was fueled by an extended "dry" forecast in South America.  Given what we know for export sales and shipment pace, how well the US crop performed in dry conditions, and ideal conditions in South America for a majority of their first growing season, do soybeans really need to be in the 13's on the board?  In my opinion, no, but I doubt the folks in Chicago are reading this.  Historically, a 1.5 billion bushel carry out in corn has us hovering around a full dollar under current futures levels.

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Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.