12/17/2021

Dec 17, 2021


12/17/2021
Money was strong on the buying side at the 8:30am open after an overnight session that featured mostly quiet, two-sided trade.  The corn board finished mixed after March corn traded through its nearest high of 596'6 and topping out at 598'6 before retreating.  On a technical basis, corn bulls would have liked to see the week close above that previous high.  Soybeans shared a very similar story with corn, today, the most recent focus for trade has been the nearest high of 1289'2 on the January contract.  After trading through this mark and setting a new short-term high of 1297'4 this morning, the market quickly retreated below the old high.  I think it's important to note that May corn and March soybean contracts DID NOT eclipse their most recent chart highs.  Today's action was front loaded with new crop corn trading a 5-cent range and new crop beans not straying much more than nickel from unchanged.  It's likely to see some resistance at the 600'0 and 1300'0 levels in corn and soybeans.  Today's push in soybeans was fueled by an extended "dry" forecast in South America.  Given what we know for export sales and shipment pace, how well the US crop performed in dry conditions, and ideal conditions in South America for a majority of their first growing season, do soybeans really need to be in the 13's on the board?  In my opinion, no, but I doubt the folks in Chicago are reading this.  Historically, a 1.5 billion bushel carry out in corn has us hovering around a full dollar under current futures levels.

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Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.
Mar 11, 2025
The monthly USDA WASDE report was today and it was about as boring as it can get.  The USDA took the month off leaving corn and beans carryouts unchanged.  Corn remains at 1.540 billion bushels and beans at 380 million bushels.  World ending stocks were slightly lowered on both corn and beans.  World corn was pegged at 288.94 million tonnes vs 290.3 million tonnes previously.  World beans were pegged at 121.4 million tonnes vs 124.3 million tonnes previously.  All of the South American crop production estimates were also left unchanged.  
Aug 30, 2024
Corn picks up 10 cents and soybeans improve just over 25 cents on the week to go into the holiday weekend on a positive note.  Soybean export sales have picked up the pace in a big way.  At the end of last week, sales...