12/17/2021

Money was strong on the buying side at the 8:30am open after an overnight session that featured mostly quiet, two-sided trade.  The corn board finished mixed after March corn traded through its nearest high of 596'6 and topping out at 598'6 before retreating.  On a technical basis, corn bulls would have liked to see the week close above that previous high.  Soybeans shared a very similar story with corn, today, the most recent focus for trade has been the nearest high of 1289'2 on the January contract.  After trading through this mark and setting a new short-term high of 1297'4 this morning, the market quickly retreated below the old high.  I think it's important to note that May corn and March soybean contracts DID NOT eclipse their most recent chart highs.  Today's action was front loaded with new crop corn trading a 5-cent range and new crop beans not straying much more than nickel from unchanged.  It's likely to see some resistance at the 600'0 and 1300'0 levels in corn and soybeans.  Today's push in soybeans was fueled by an extended "dry" forecast in South America.  Given what we know for export sales and shipment pace, how well the US crop performed in dry conditions, and ideal conditions in South America for a majority of their first growing season, do soybeans really need to be in the 13's on the board?  In my opinion, no, but I doubt the folks in Chicago are reading this.  Historically, a 1.5 billion bushel carry out in corn has us hovering around a full dollar under current futures levels.