12/16/2021

Dec 16, 2021


12/16/2021
Corn and soybeans both firm out of the gate to start the overnight session.  Pressure continues to build just below the most recent highs in corn and it is starting to feel like 600'0 futures are inevitable.  A strong close to finish this week in the mid 590's will likely get us there.  If we make a strong run above 600'0, the first move recommended is to lock in basis on all of your unsold old crop inventory.  Basis strength through harvest was unprecedented and we have not fallen off much.  Futures and basis typically move the opposite of each other.  Buying across the soy complex, despite overall favorable conditions in South America, following a rebound in wheat, oil, and Chinese soybean futures.  At 8 a.m. this morning, the USDA announced the sale of 20,000 tonnes of soybean oil for delivery to India during 2021/22 marketing year.  Through the harvest months, the soybean board had built in some good carry out into mid 2022 but that has suddenly evaporated, going flat priced along with corn and could potentially go inverted.
 
The 50- and 100-day moving averages for the January bean contract have defined our trading range for the better part of the past month.  January soybeans just barely traded through 1280'0 today, the bottom side of my pricing window, and there remains potential to hit the top side of this window near 1288'0.  Just above 1288'0 lies some resistance but a close of 1290'0 or better would bring with it the potential for another shot at 1300'0 futures.  But before we get too far ahead of ourselves, a daily close above the 100-day moving average is needed.  New crop pricing corn at 555'0 and soybeans at 1260'0 futures are the spots to set sell orders.
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