12/15/2021

Dec 15, 2021


12/15/2021
After a quiet overnight session, corn and soybeans attempted to surge higher after the morning break, with corn trading up to 6 higher and soybeans 7 higher.  With some traders already sidelined for the holidays, the algorithms are full steam ahead in the lighter volume, creating some interesting volatility and price action.  The current technical objective on the front month for corn is to take out our most recent high of 596'6.  After failing to do so, the market quickly faded lower and corn spent the remainder of the day in the red.  The USDA 8 am sale announcements remain quiet for the week.  Weekly ethanol numbers were slightly unfriendly with production down 3,000 bpd to 1.09 million bpd and stocks increasing 419k barrels to 20.88 mln bbls.  The NOPA crush numbers for November were also released today showing 179.46 million bushels crushed, this was down from November of 2020 but still second highest crush all time for month of November.  This was below the trade average guess of 181.64 million bushels.  Soy oil stocks came in at 1.832 billion pounds, down fractionally from October and below the trade estimate of 1.903 billion pounds.  If you have not priced some old crop corn in, or near, this 590'0 futures area, I strongly encourage you to do so.  Continue to work sell orders at feel-good levels through the holiday season.  I expect to see more price action comparable to today's and a sell order can only fill if it is working.  Looks like we're in for some crazy weather over the next 24 hours, stay safe!

March corn 5 minute chart.  Trade volume in corn went down significantly and price action went flat between 11 a.m.-1 p.m., almost like flipping a switch.
corn-chart.jpg

Soybeans have potential for a big move next week.  Jan through July contracts are all approaching a trendline bowtie on the charts which could force the market either direction.  My bias is lower.

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