Grain > Commentary > 12-14-2022

12/14/2022

Dec 14, 2022

12/14/2022
Corn ends the day lower on the front months and higher starting at the December 2023 contract and further out.  Soybeans settled mostly unchanged to 3 cents higher, with just a few months closing fractional to 1 lower.  With some solid export sale announcements and shipment pace over the past couple weeks, soybeans have found a bid near the top end of our 6-month trading range but have yet to mount a charge towards the $15 handle.  Corn was softer early session but spec buying showed up shortly after the morning break.  Overall, a very bland day of featureless trade.  With a lack of market moving headlines or changes in fundamentals, trade is focused on technicals.  Weekly ethanol showed output down 16,000 barrels/day to 1.06 mln bpd and stocks increasing 1.15 mln barrels to 24.41 mln bbls.

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.