12/14/2022

Dec 14, 2022


12/14/2022
Corn ends the day lower on the front months and higher starting at the December 2023 contract and further out.  Soybeans settled mostly unchanged to 3 cents higher, with just a few months closing fractional to 1 lower.  With some solid export sale announcements and shipment pace over the past couple weeks, soybeans have found a bid near the top end of our 6-month trading range but have yet to mount a charge towards the $15 handle.  Corn was softer early session but spec buying showed up shortly after the morning break.  Overall, a very bland day of featureless trade.  With a lack of market moving headlines or changes in fundamentals, trade is focused on technicals.  Weekly ethanol showed output down 16,000 barrels/day to 1.06 mln bpd and stocks increasing 1.15 mln barrels to 24.41 mln bbls.

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.