Grain > Commentary > 12-14-2021

12/14/2021

Dec 14, 2021

12/14/2021
Corn and soybeans come back strong off of their overnight lows for a textbook "turnaround Tuesday."  Today's bounce back puts us basically unchanged on the week after 2 days of trade.  Fundamentally, there hasn’t been any changes or news.  The USDA 8 a.m. sales announcements have gone quiet after putting together a good run for the first half of December.  China is hosting the winter Olympics in two months and it may be a while until we see them purchase to ramp up any type of imports.  Portions of Chinese industry are cut back/shut down (ex: bean processors), need the country to look good on T.V.  Overall, there is not much of an explanation for the price action we've seen this week.  Figures for the November NOPA crush will be released tomorrow, with trade estimates ranging from 178-184 million bushels crushed for an average of 181.64 million.  This will at least give us some sort of information for trade to chew on.

Trade is trying to create excitement out of some short-term dryness in Brazil, likely from a lack of any other news.brazil.jpg

Read More News

8/15/2025
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
8/12/2025
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
5/12/2025
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.