12/14/2021

Dec 14, 2021


12/14/2021
Corn and soybeans come back strong off of their overnight lows for a textbook "turnaround Tuesday."  Today's bounce back puts us basically unchanged on the week after 2 days of trade.  Fundamentally, there hasn’t been any changes or news.  The USDA 8 a.m. sales announcements have gone quiet after putting together a good run for the first half of December.  China is hosting the winter Olympics in two months and it may be a while until we see them purchase to ramp up any type of imports.  Portions of Chinese industry are cut back/shut down (ex: bean processors), need the country to look good on T.V.  Overall, there is not much of an explanation for the price action we've seen this week.  Figures for the November NOPA crush will be released tomorrow, with trade estimates ranging from 178-184 million bushels crushed for an average of 181.64 million.  This will at least give us some sort of information for trade to chew on.

Trade is trying to create excitement out of some short-term dryness in Brazil, likely from a lack of any other news.brazil.jpg

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.