Grain > Commentary > 12-14-2021

12/14/2021

Dec 14, 2021

12/14/2021
Corn and soybeans come back strong off of their overnight lows for a textbook "turnaround Tuesday."  Today's bounce back puts us basically unchanged on the week after 2 days of trade.  Fundamentally, there hasn’t been any changes or news.  The USDA 8 a.m. sales announcements have gone quiet after putting together a good run for the first half of December.  China is hosting the winter Olympics in two months and it may be a while until we see them purchase to ramp up any type of imports.  Portions of Chinese industry are cut back/shut down (ex: bean processors), need the country to look good on T.V.  Overall, there is not much of an explanation for the price action we've seen this week.  Figures for the November NOPA crush will be released tomorrow, with trade estimates ranging from 178-184 million bushels crushed for an average of 181.64 million.  This will at least give us some sort of information for trade to chew on.

Trade is trying to create excitement out of some short-term dryness in Brazil, likely from a lack of any other news.brazil.jpg

Read More News

2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.