12/13/2021

Corn and soybeans started firm on the overnight but eventually rolled over to sell pressure.  Corn finished the day 5-8 cents lower after failing to take out the most recent high of 596'6 following a largely neutral December WASDE report.  Soybeans were very weak today, posting double-digit losses of 15-24 cents after good, widespread rains across South America fell over the weekend.  If you are bullish soybeans, it’s time to be careful.  Brazilian FOB soy values are currently cheaper than the US, at a time of the year when Brazil has its smallest supply.  With the ideal conditions they have had for crop development, the US will just plain have to get cheaper for exports to stay competitive when the South America harvest hits.  There's little-to-no obligation for China to purchase from the U.S.  Corn appears to pretty well already be in "holiday mode" and likely to remain range bound through the end of the year.  Weekly export inspections were on the low end of expectations for corn with 810k tonnes inspected last week.  Soybean inspections came in below target with 1.724 mln tonnes inspected vs the bottom estimate of 1.9 mln.  Soybean shipments have increased their cushion above the pace necessary to meet the USDA forecast from 4 million to 10 million bushels.  Corn shipments are now 170 million bushels behind the pace needed to meet the USDA forecast compared to 161 million the prior week.

March corn bounced solidly off the 20 day moving average and January soybeans settled on their 50 day moving average.  I am looking for/expecting a “Turnaround Tuesday” tomorrow.