Dec 11, 2023

The soy complex lead the way on Monday with soybeans enjoying gains of 14-32 cents. Today's strong move higher was sparked with chart buying overnight after we opened above trendline resistance. Adding fuel to the buying was a South American forecast that turned drier and more Chinese soybean purchases. The USDA announced 132,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to unknown at 8 a.m. this morning. Corn and wheat trade struggled to find any higher trade. Corn finished with losses of 1-4 cents and wheat ranged from 18-29 cents lower. Weekly export inspections were within expectations for corn and soybeans but on the low side with 712k tonnes of corn and 984k tonnes of soybeans inspected for shipment last week. Soybean inspections have fallen off quite quickly and corn is at average pace.

If trade decides to go ahead with some follow-through buying in soybeans, the first test is just 5 cents above today’s close on the January contract. The 20 and 100 day moving averages have converged at the 1341 level. If we trade through and hold above those points, there is a fair amount of room overhead for a nice end-of-the-year rally in soybeans.

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