12/11/2023

Dec 11, 2023


The soy complex lead the way on Monday with soybeans enjoying gains of 14-32 cents. Today's strong move higher was sparked with chart buying overnight after we opened above trendline resistance. Adding fuel to the buying was a South American forecast that turned drier and more Chinese soybean purchases. The USDA announced 132,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to unknown at 8 a.m. this morning. Corn and wheat trade struggled to find any higher trade. Corn finished with losses of 1-4 cents and wheat ranged from 18-29 cents lower. Weekly export inspections were within expectations for corn and soybeans but on the low side with 712k tonnes of corn and 984k tonnes of soybeans inspected for shipment last week. Soybean inspections have fallen off quite quickly and corn is at average pace.

If trade decides to go ahead with some follow-through buying in soybeans, the first test is just 5 cents above today’s close on the January contract. The 20 and 100 day moving averages have converged at the 1341 level. If we trade through and hold above those points, there is a fair amount of room overhead for a nice end-of-the-year rally in soybeans.

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.