12/11/2023

Dec 11, 2023


The soy complex lead the way on Monday with soybeans enjoying gains of 14-32 cents. Today's strong move higher was sparked with chart buying overnight after we opened above trendline resistance. Adding fuel to the buying was a South American forecast that turned drier and more Chinese soybean purchases. The USDA announced 132,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to unknown at 8 a.m. this morning. Corn and wheat trade struggled to find any higher trade. Corn finished with losses of 1-4 cents and wheat ranged from 18-29 cents lower. Weekly export inspections were within expectations for corn and soybeans but on the low side with 712k tonnes of corn and 984k tonnes of soybeans inspected for shipment last week. Soybean inspections have fallen off quite quickly and corn is at average pace.

If trade decides to go ahead with some follow-through buying in soybeans, the first test is just 5 cents above today’s close on the January contract. The 20 and 100 day moving averages have converged at the 1341 level. If we trade through and hold above those points, there is a fair amount of room overhead for a nice end-of-the-year rally in soybeans.

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Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT.