12/10/2021

Dec 10, 2021


12/10/2021
Some good upwards momentum after the coffee break was stemmed off only 15 minutes into the session.  Highs for the day were set early with trade seemingly uninterested in doing much of anything.  Corn traded 2 cents and soybeans 6 cents for the large majority of the slow day.  This could be the theme for trade for the remainder of the year unless we get some type of suprise news before the final production report in January.  Processors and end-users have backed off their cash bids over the past week and appear to be covered into the new year.  Corn is hanging around the top end of a six-month trading range, hitting my most recent futures target for pricing some grain.  Soy oil and meal are taking turns supporting soybeans and I am leaving my target in place in the 1280-1290 area on the January 22 contract to price some beans out of the bin or on storage in town.  We traded within 4 cents of the 1280 mark today and with a big crop likely to be harvested in Brazil over the next couple months, best to not give up quarters while trying to grab nickels.  Weekly grain closes: cash corn 6 cents higher, new crop corn 1 lower; cash soybeans unchanged on the week and new crop soybeans up 14 cents.

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.