Grain > Commentary > 12-1-2022

12/1/2022

Dec 01, 2022

12/1/2022
The market story today was large, limit-down losses in soy oil dragging down soybeans, corn, and wheat.  Soybeans suffered the biggest losses with lows around -43 cents on the day.  With one trading day remaining, soybeans sit just above unchanged for the week on the board.  Today's sizable losses surprised a lot of people in the market after the EPA renewable fuel blending proposals showed increases of 20.82-22.68 bln gallons for 2023-2025.  These proposals lend some support over time but nothing can be verified until mid-2023.  The weekly export sales report did little to help lift the market.  Soybean net sales were reported at 694k tonnes, even with this time last year.  Corn sales came in at 603k tonnes, about 50% of last year's volume on this week.  China is largely missing.  The USDA made an 8.a.m. announcement this morning of 114,300 tonnes of corn to Mexico for the 2022/23 marketing year.  Marketing year to date, corn export sales pace is 324 million bushels short of the USDA target and soybean sales pace is 51 million bushels short.  With the soybean export program winding down, look at fixing basis on your remaining old crop soybeans.  With today's lock-limit down close in soy oil, the entire soy complex with have expanded limits tomorrow.

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2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
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1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.