12/1/2022

Dec 01, 2022


12/1/2022
The market story today was large, limit-down losses in soy oil dragging down soybeans, corn, and wheat.  Soybeans suffered the biggest losses with lows around -43 cents on the day.  With one trading day remaining, soybeans sit just above unchanged for the week on the board.  Today's sizable losses surprised a lot of people in the market after the EPA renewable fuel blending proposals showed increases of 20.82-22.68 bln gallons for 2023-2025.  These proposals lend some support over time but nothing can be verified until mid-2023.  The weekly export sales report did little to help lift the market.  Soybean net sales were reported at 694k tonnes, even with this time last year.  Corn sales came in at 603k tonnes, about 50% of last year's volume on this week.  China is largely missing.  The USDA made an 8.a.m. announcement this morning of 114,300 tonnes of corn to Mexico for the 2022/23 marketing year.  Marketing year to date, corn export sales pace is 324 million bushels short of the USDA target and soybean sales pace is 51 million bushels short.  With the soybean export program winding down, look at fixing basis on your remaining old crop soybeans.  With today's lock-limit down close in soy oil, the entire soy complex with have expanded limits tomorrow.

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Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.