12/1/2020

Dec 01, 2020


12/1/2020
News is very quiet and the markets continued fade into the close today.  March corn broke the 4.23 level today, but hung onto the next support level of 4.20.  Ultimately there is a chance we could go down and test the 4.00 level, but that would take a widespread rain in South America.  Beans look destined now to test that 11.38 January level I mentioned yesterday.  Bean exports have slowed and the exporters seem over bought currently as no more new business has showed up for a while.  The market hasn’t had more than a few day setbacks in months. Is it time we do now?  The last set back we had was during month end in October and continued into the first couple days on November, which was about a 42 cent pull back, and then we blew up into new high levels.  Are we setting up for the same thing?  We are about to find out for sure, but my gut says 11.38 is in play, which is a healthy correction in my opinion.  South American weather will likely decide our fate either way.
 

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Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.