11/9/2023

Nov 09, 2023


The USDA offered some unfriendly surprises in the November WASDE report. Soybeans reversed on the day to finish 10-22 lower. Corn set fresh two-year lows but continues to hold the 467-470 area on December. While this looks bearish on the surface, corn not breaking lower on this report is encouraging. The longer this area holds, the more attractive it will look to trade to add length to their positions. USDA increased corn yield by almost 2 full bushels but added demand/usage to help offset some of the production increase. The changes on the soybean balance sheet were much less exciting. A simple increase in yield of .3 bu/ac trickled down to an increase in carryout of 25 million bushels.

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May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.