Grain > Commentary > 11-9-2020

11/9/2020

Nov 09, 2020

11/9/2020
News broke this morning that Pfizer and their German partner Biontech announced they have a Covid-19 vaccine that is 90% effective and could be available by December. They intend to ask the Food & Drug Administration to allow early release of the vaccine. 90% effective is pretty impressive and is a game changer.  Obviously, it will take some to roll something like that out in the type quantity needed, but it’s a good start and the markets liked the news.  The Dow is currently up about 1,000 points and traded as high as 1,700 higher to exactly the 30,000 on the mini Dow futures.  Beans were the leader today as there are still weather concerns in South America as well.  The USDA announced the sale of 123,000 MT’s soybeans to unknown this morning.  Tomorrow is the release of the USDA report, which could shape up to be a wild one, so buckle in.
 

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9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.