11/7/2022

Nov 07, 2022


11/7/2022
The market was defensive and went risk-off to start the week after China flip-flopped on their announcement from last week about loosening up of Covid protocols.  Two days out from our November WASDE report, the market is leaning towards a larger supply and smaller demand for corn.  Soybeans were pressured on what the China Covid protocols possibly mean for U.S. soy demand.  U.S. weekly export inspections were excellent for soybeans at 2.591 million tonnes, hanging with some of our best numbers over the past seven years.  Soybean export shipment pace falls short of the USDA target by 73 million bushels compared to 89 million bushels the previous week.  This gap should continue to narrow.  Corn inspections disappointed with 231k tonnes inspected for shipment.  This was the lowest total for this week over the past seven marketing years.  We should start to see an upswing in corn inspections going into the second half of November.  Have sell orders working on Wednesday to capture potential price spikes following our WASDE report.

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.