11/7/2022

Nov 07, 2022


11/7/2022
The market was defensive and went risk-off to start the week after China flip-flopped on their announcement from last week about loosening up of Covid protocols.  Two days out from our November WASDE report, the market is leaning towards a larger supply and smaller demand for corn.  Soybeans were pressured on what the China Covid protocols possibly mean for U.S. soy demand.  U.S. weekly export inspections were excellent for soybeans at 2.591 million tonnes, hanging with some of our best numbers over the past seven years.  Soybean export shipment pace falls short of the USDA target by 73 million bushels compared to 89 million bushels the previous week.  This gap should continue to narrow.  Corn inspections disappointed with 231k tonnes inspected for shipment.  This was the lowest total for this week over the past seven marketing years.  We should start to see an upswing in corn inspections going into the second half of November.  Have sell orders working on Wednesday to capture potential price spikes following our WASDE report.

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Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.