11/7/2022

Nov 07, 2022


11/7/2022
The market was defensive and went risk-off to start the week after China flip-flopped on their announcement from last week about loosening up of Covid protocols.  Two days out from our November WASDE report, the market is leaning towards a larger supply and smaller demand for corn.  Soybeans were pressured on what the China Covid protocols possibly mean for U.S. soy demand.  U.S. weekly export inspections were excellent for soybeans at 2.591 million tonnes, hanging with some of our best numbers over the past seven years.  Soybean export shipment pace falls short of the USDA target by 73 million bushels compared to 89 million bushels the previous week.  This gap should continue to narrow.  Corn inspections disappointed with 231k tonnes inspected for shipment.  This was the lowest total for this week over the past seven marketing years.  We should start to see an upswing in corn inspections going into the second half of November.  Have sell orders working on Wednesday to capture potential price spikes following our WASDE report.

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Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.