Grain > Commentary > 11-5-2020

11/5/2020

Nov 05, 2020

11/5/2020
Another day of good gains in the grain markets and the financial markets.  More China rumors around, but nothing confirmed.  We had a couple small exports sales announced this morning of soybean oil and sorghum, nothing too exciting.  Exports sales for the week were very good for corn at 2,610,800 tonnes compared to estimates of 1,800,000 to 2,500,000 tonnes.  Soybean export sales were near 1,530,000 mmt.  South American weather still remains a question mark as they have got recent rains, but some still want to lean towards a dry growing season.  The USDA's next report will come on Tuesday and we should see shrinking carryout's in both corn and beans.  Beans remain to be the best story at the moment, but corn is definitely starting to gain momentum as well.  Estimates for the report have corn carryout at 2.0 billion, down from 2.167 in October.  Estimates have the bean carryout at 235 million, down from 290 million in October.  Some private estimates are closer to 150 million at this time.  So, to sum it up we have a shrinking supply and are growing demand, which leads to higher prices. 
 

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10/9/2026
Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.