11/5/2020

Nov 05, 2020


11/5/2020
Another day of good gains in the grain markets and the financial markets.  More China rumors around, but nothing confirmed.  We had a couple small exports sales announced this morning of soybean oil and sorghum, nothing too exciting.  Exports sales for the week were very good for corn at 2,610,800 tonnes compared to estimates of 1,800,000 to 2,500,000 tonnes.  Soybean export sales were near 1,530,000 mmt.  South American weather still remains a question mark as they have got recent rains, but some still want to lean towards a dry growing season.  The USDA's next report will come on Tuesday and we should see shrinking carryout's in both corn and beans.  Beans remain to be the best story at the moment, but corn is definitely starting to gain momentum as well.  Estimates for the report have corn carryout at 2.0 billion, down from 2.167 in October.  Estimates have the bean carryout at 235 million, down from 290 million in October.  Some private estimates are closer to 150 million at this time.  So, to sum it up we have a shrinking supply and are growing demand, which leads to higher prices. 
 

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Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.