Grain > Commentary > 11-5-2020

11/5/2020

Nov 05, 2020

11/5/2020
Another day of good gains in the grain markets and the financial markets.  More China rumors around, but nothing confirmed.  We had a couple small exports sales announced this morning of soybean oil and sorghum, nothing too exciting.  Exports sales for the week were very good for corn at 2,610,800 tonnes compared to estimates of 1,800,000 to 2,500,000 tonnes.  Soybean export sales were near 1,530,000 mmt.  South American weather still remains a question mark as they have got recent rains, but some still want to lean towards a dry growing season.  The USDA's next report will come on Tuesday and we should see shrinking carryout's in both corn and beans.  Beans remain to be the best story at the moment, but corn is definitely starting to gain momentum as well.  Estimates for the report have corn carryout at 2.0 billion, down from 2.167 in October.  Estimates have the bean carryout at 235 million, down from 290 million in October.  Some private estimates are closer to 150 million at this time.  So, to sum it up we have a shrinking supply and are growing demand, which leads to higher prices. 
 

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1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.