11/4/2022

Nov 04, 2022


11/4/2022
Soybeans lead the way higher going into the weekend on hopes of increased export business after it was announced that China would begin working its way towards an opened-up economy without Covid restrictions on citizens. The strength in soybeans lifted the other grain trades with it. This was also friendly for energies, vegetable oils, and soybean meal. Corn traded to 5-6 cents higher before drifting back to finish a modest 1-2 cents better on the day. Soybeans traded to 20+ cents higher early and held throughout the entire session. With a majority of harvest complete, analysts have started raising their yield projections for this year's U.S. crops. Will the USDA do the same in next week's WASDE report? This is typically a quiet report but with corn exports continuing at the bare-minimum pace and the crops much better than anyone expected, the USDA may make changes sooner than they have in the past. Look at the 695-700 area on the December futures for a corn sale if you did not price anything in that area earlier this week.

Soybeans charged higher to finish the week. In my opinion, we need to see the January contract correct lower near the 1420 area before trying break higher out of 4 months of consolidating trade. Set price targets to fill cash at the 1490 futures area if we are able to break out higher.
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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.