11/4/2022

Nov 04, 2022


11/4/2022
Soybeans lead the way higher going into the weekend on hopes of increased export business after it was announced that China would begin working its way towards an opened-up economy without Covid restrictions on citizens. The strength in soybeans lifted the other grain trades with it. This was also friendly for energies, vegetable oils, and soybean meal. Corn traded to 5-6 cents higher before drifting back to finish a modest 1-2 cents better on the day. Soybeans traded to 20+ cents higher early and held throughout the entire session. With a majority of harvest complete, analysts have started raising their yield projections for this year's U.S. crops. Will the USDA do the same in next week's WASDE report? This is typically a quiet report but with corn exports continuing at the bare-minimum pace and the crops much better than anyone expected, the USDA may make changes sooner than they have in the past. Look at the 695-700 area on the December futures for a corn sale if you did not price anything in that area earlier this week.

Soybeans charged higher to finish the week. In my opinion, we need to see the January contract correct lower near the 1420 area before trying break higher out of 4 months of consolidating trade. Set price targets to fill cash at the 1490 futures area if we are able to break out higher.
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Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.