Grain > Commentary > 11-4-2021

11/4/2021

Nov 04, 2021

11/4/2021
Overnight trade tried to put together some strength in corn and wheat with both trading higher for the entirety of the session.  Corn and soybeans tried to firm the move at the 8:30 open but faded alongside crude oil.  Funds were not actively buying and crude oil was lower (below $80/bbl at around 1:00pm), not leaving much of a leg for corn and soybeans to stand on.  Wheat tried to comeback from yesterday's sell-off but strength eroded as it did with corn and soybeans.  My expectation for tomorrow is some quiet markets with just some positioning trade ahead of the November WASDE report on Tuesday, wouldn't be surprised to see a close in the red going into the weekend.  The market blew off the October report that was very unfriendly for corn and never traded it.  In my opinion, it would be proper to see corn correct down further, yet.  Also today, soybeans broke lower out of consolidation with the January contract finishing the day down 21 cents.  Weekly export sales were at the high end of expectations with 1.224 million tonnes of corn, 1.864 mmt of soybeans, and 400k tonnes of wheat sold last week.  The USDA made an 8am sale announcement of 100,000 tonnes of soybeans to Egypt for the 2021/22 marketing year.  It is nice to see a different name on a flash sale.

We discussed a potential head & shoulders pattern on soybeans two weeks ago.  Possible right shoulder put in this week.beans.jpg
 

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
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9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.