Grain > Commentary > 11-4-2021

11/4/2021

Nov 04, 2021

11/4/2021
Overnight trade tried to put together some strength in corn and wheat with both trading higher for the entirety of the session.  Corn and soybeans tried to firm the move at the 8:30 open but faded alongside crude oil.  Funds were not actively buying and crude oil was lower (below $80/bbl at around 1:00pm), not leaving much of a leg for corn and soybeans to stand on.  Wheat tried to comeback from yesterday's sell-off but strength eroded as it did with corn and soybeans.  My expectation for tomorrow is some quiet markets with just some positioning trade ahead of the November WASDE report on Tuesday, wouldn't be surprised to see a close in the red going into the weekend.  The market blew off the October report that was very unfriendly for corn and never traded it.  In my opinion, it would be proper to see corn correct down further, yet.  Also today, soybeans broke lower out of consolidation with the January contract finishing the day down 21 cents.  Weekly export sales were at the high end of expectations with 1.224 million tonnes of corn, 1.864 mmt of soybeans, and 400k tonnes of wheat sold last week.  The USDA made an 8am sale announcement of 100,000 tonnes of soybeans to Egypt for the 2021/22 marketing year.  It is nice to see a different name on a flash sale.

We discussed a potential head & shoulders pattern on soybeans two weeks ago.  Possible right shoulder put in this week.beans.jpg
 

Read More News

9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.