11/4/2021

Nov 04, 2021


11/4/2021
Overnight trade tried to put together some strength in corn and wheat with both trading higher for the entirety of the session.  Corn and soybeans tried to firm the move at the 8:30 open but faded alongside crude oil.  Funds were not actively buying and crude oil was lower (below $80/bbl at around 1:00pm), not leaving much of a leg for corn and soybeans to stand on.  Wheat tried to comeback from yesterday's sell-off but strength eroded as it did with corn and soybeans.  My expectation for tomorrow is some quiet markets with just some positioning trade ahead of the November WASDE report on Tuesday, wouldn't be surprised to see a close in the red going into the weekend.  The market blew off the October report that was very unfriendly for corn and never traded it.  In my opinion, it would be proper to see corn correct down further, yet.  Also today, soybeans broke lower out of consolidation with the January contract finishing the day down 21 cents.  Weekly export sales were at the high end of expectations with 1.224 million tonnes of corn, 1.864 mmt of soybeans, and 400k tonnes of wheat sold last week.  The USDA made an 8am sale announcement of 100,000 tonnes of soybeans to Egypt for the 2021/22 marketing year.  It is nice to see a different name on a flash sale.

We discussed a potential head & shoulders pattern on soybeans two weeks ago.  Possible right shoulder put in this week.beans.jpg
 

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Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.