Grain > Commentary > 11-30-2022

11/30/2022

Nov 30, 2022

11/30/2022
Soybeans solidify their move higher, setting fresh 60-day highs while the market appears it wants to keep marching up towards a potential test of resistance near the $15.00 level on the January chart.  Yesterday, corn matched its high mark from the past two weeks but follow-through buying today was stagnant/non-existent and corn was unable to capitalize on the strength in soy and wheat.  Today's solid gains in wheat were a surprise considering the fast improvement in the winter wheat conditions.  Corn spent the month of November consolidating between the 50- and 100-day moving averages.  We were able to hold a key support level at 650'0 halfway through the month and we have a slow, short-term trend higher developing off of that support.  Lending overall support to commodities today was the U.S. House of Representatives backing a bill that would impose legislation and prevent the rail unions from striking.  Weekly ethanol data showed a decrease in output of 23,000 barrels/day to 1.018 mln bpd and stocks increasing 100,000 barrels to 22.93 mln bbls.

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9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.