11/30/2022

Nov 30, 2022


11/30/2022
Soybeans solidify their move higher, setting fresh 60-day highs while the market appears it wants to keep marching up towards a potential test of resistance near the $15.00 level on the January chart.  Yesterday, corn matched its high mark from the past two weeks but follow-through buying today was stagnant/non-existent and corn was unable to capitalize on the strength in soy and wheat.  Today's solid gains in wheat were a surprise considering the fast improvement in the winter wheat conditions.  Corn spent the month of November consolidating between the 50- and 100-day moving averages.  We were able to hold a key support level at 650'0 halfway through the month and we have a slow, short-term trend higher developing off of that support.  Lending overall support to commodities today was the U.S. House of Representatives backing a bill that would impose legislation and prevent the rail unions from striking.  Weekly ethanol data showed a decrease in output of 23,000 barrels/day to 1.018 mln bpd and stocks increasing 100,000 barrels to 22.93 mln bbls.

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May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.