11/30/2022

Nov 30, 2022


11/30/2022
Soybeans solidify their move higher, setting fresh 60-day highs while the market appears it wants to keep marching up towards a potential test of resistance near the $15.00 level on the January chart.  Yesterday, corn matched its high mark from the past two weeks but follow-through buying today was stagnant/non-existent and corn was unable to capitalize on the strength in soy and wheat.  Today's solid gains in wheat were a surprise considering the fast improvement in the winter wheat conditions.  Corn spent the month of November consolidating between the 50- and 100-day moving averages.  We were able to hold a key support level at 650'0 halfway through the month and we have a slow, short-term trend higher developing off of that support.  Lending overall support to commodities today was the U.S. House of Representatives backing a bill that would impose legislation and prevent the rail unions from striking.  Weekly ethanol data showed a decrease in output of 23,000 barrels/day to 1.018 mln bpd and stocks increasing 100,000 barrels to 22.93 mln bbls.

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Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.