11/30/2022

Nov 30, 2022


11/30/2022
Soybeans solidify their move higher, setting fresh 60-day highs while the market appears it wants to keep marching up towards a potential test of resistance near the $15.00 level on the January chart.  Yesterday, corn matched its high mark from the past two weeks but follow-through buying today was stagnant/non-existent and corn was unable to capitalize on the strength in soy and wheat.  Today's solid gains in wheat were a surprise considering the fast improvement in the winter wheat conditions.  Corn spent the month of November consolidating between the 50- and 100-day moving averages.  We were able to hold a key support level at 650'0 halfway through the month and we have a slow, short-term trend higher developing off of that support.  Lending overall support to commodities today was the U.S. House of Representatives backing a bill that would impose legislation and prevent the rail unions from striking.  Weekly ethanol data showed a decrease in output of 23,000 barrels/day to 1.018 mln bpd and stocks increasing 100,000 barrels to 22.93 mln bbls.

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.