11/30/2020

Nov 30, 2020


11/30/2020
Month end is upon us and fund liquidation and profit taking was in full swing.  A wetter South American forecast is also to blame as it looks like this correction could last a bit longer on that note.  We are due for a correction as we just can't seem to push into new highs on both corn and beans.  The USDA announced the sale of a total of 344,000 MT’s of corn to “unknown” this morning.  Most are assuming that is China, but you never know.  March corn is about 3 cents off the recent lows, which should be support.  Jan beans are about 30 cents from nearby support.  I wouldn't rule out trying to trade down there, but overall, I remain optimistic the markets.  December could be a tough month to get much going if South America's weather improves.  I think Jan, Feb, March will have better opportunities as we get the corn export program into full swing.  By then we will also be getting a better idea of US planting intentions as well. 
 

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.