11/30/2020

Nov 30, 2020


11/30/2020
Month end is upon us and fund liquidation and profit taking was in full swing.  A wetter South American forecast is also to blame as it looks like this correction could last a bit longer on that note.  We are due for a correction as we just can't seem to push into new highs on both corn and beans.  The USDA announced the sale of a total of 344,000 MT’s of corn to “unknown” this morning.  Most are assuming that is China, but you never know.  March corn is about 3 cents off the recent lows, which should be support.  Jan beans are about 30 cents from nearby support.  I wouldn't rule out trying to trade down there, but overall, I remain optimistic the markets.  December could be a tough month to get much going if South America's weather improves.  I think Jan, Feb, March will have better opportunities as we get the corn export program into full swing.  By then we will also be getting a better idea of US planting intentions as well. 
 

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.