11/3/2023

Nov 03, 2023


Soybeans surge with gains of 17-23 cents and corn follows to improve 6-7 cents to close the week. Highs in soybeans were set during the final minutes of the session. Trade was quiet overnight with soybeans and corn keeping within a couple pennies of unchanged until outside markets brought money flowing into grains. A poor October jobs report sent treasury yields plunging and weakened the dollar index which triggered chunk buying of commodities. After a quick pullback, momentum buying advanced the market further to the upside. The USDA announcing 131,150 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to unknown during the 23/24 marketing year likely helped convinced trade that this move was warranted. December corn held just above the very important September low and completed an outside reversal higher. Trade held firmly higher through the session, giving a positive outlook going into trade next week.


A strong leg higher on the soybean charts today. The Jan 24 contract surpassed a trio of technical points today and now lies above moving averages after completing a 50% retracement to the July high. We have had several conversations over the past month with growers where we pinpointed today’s trading area as a spot to price bushels in town. With the strong action today, the door has cracked open to the possibility of $13 soybeans.

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.