11/3/2021

A correction was well overdue in several commodities and today it was evident that the market realized this, as well.  Spring wheat lead today's move lower with the front month down 31'4 cents and more downside is likely.  Oats were also significantly lower, finishing 13 down and look like they could possibly be starting to consolidate on the chart.  Crude oil trade also weighed on the market, with the front month down $3/bbl at around 1:30pm today.  The small grains and crude oil are the outside markets that have been very influential in corn's recent price rally.  2021 crop corn gave back 8-10 cents, with the December contract finishing the day 22 cents off of yesterday’s high.  Corn likely needs retrace lower some more, the 540-550 area on the December 21 contract would be healthy if the market truly needs to be priced at the levels we are currently at.  Soybeans also saw similar risk being taken off, with the January 22 contract posting its lowest close since October 22.  Soybean carries show good return for storage but the long-term outlook into next year does not show much incentive.  Brazil production estimates continue to increase and with current conditions ideal, Brazil may see an earlier export window that would conflict with the traditional US export program.  Weekly ethanol numbers; output increased 1,000 bpd to 1.11 mln bpd, stocks also increased 204,000 barrels to a total of 20.13 mln bbls.