Grain > Commentary > 11-29-2022

11/29/2022

Nov 29, 2022

11/29/2022
A quiet day overall for the markets.  We saw some higher trade through the overnight session and briefly after the morning break before we scattered into slow, two-sided trade past mid-day.  After soybeans broke higher yesterday, today's lower trade found buyers and immediate support at the 200-day moving average before flipping green and trading near the November monthly highs.  Corn ended the day mixed, fractional-1 cent away from unchanged.  After seeing 13-20 cent trading ranges, soybeans finished higher, improving 1-5 cents.  Bullish sentiment in corn has been on the downtrend.  The commitment to traders showed funds and managed have liquidated positions to their smallest length since August.  The market has absorbed the offset selling incredibly well and we have been able to maintain trade near, or above, August highs.  This is promising as we are nearing a timeframe where we should start to see an upswing in corn export sales and inspections as the soybean program begins to wind down.

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.