Grain > Commentary > 11-29-2022

11/29/2022

Nov 29, 2022

11/29/2022
A quiet day overall for the markets.  We saw some higher trade through the overnight session and briefly after the morning break before we scattered into slow, two-sided trade past mid-day.  After soybeans broke higher yesterday, today's lower trade found buyers and immediate support at the 200-day moving average before flipping green and trading near the November monthly highs.  Corn ended the day mixed, fractional-1 cent away from unchanged.  After seeing 13-20 cent trading ranges, soybeans finished higher, improving 1-5 cents.  Bullish sentiment in corn has been on the downtrend.  The commitment to traders showed funds and managed have liquidated positions to their smallest length since August.  The market has absorbed the offset selling incredibly well and we have been able to maintain trade near, or above, August highs.  This is promising as we are nearing a timeframe where we should start to see an upswing in corn export sales and inspections as the soybean program begins to wind down.

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9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.