Grain > Commentary > 11-29-2022

11/29/2022

Nov 29, 2022

11/29/2022
A quiet day overall for the markets.  We saw some higher trade through the overnight session and briefly after the morning break before we scattered into slow, two-sided trade past mid-day.  After soybeans broke higher yesterday, today's lower trade found buyers and immediate support at the 200-day moving average before flipping green and trading near the November monthly highs.  Corn ended the day mixed, fractional-1 cent away from unchanged.  After seeing 13-20 cent trading ranges, soybeans finished higher, improving 1-5 cents.  Bullish sentiment in corn has been on the downtrend.  The commitment to traders showed funds and managed have liquidated positions to their smallest length since August.  The market has absorbed the offset selling incredibly well and we have been able to maintain trade near, or above, August highs.  This is promising as we are nearing a timeframe where we should start to see an upswing in corn export sales and inspections as the soybean program begins to wind down.

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1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.