11/29/2021

Nov 29, 2021


11/29/2021
Money flow was in sell-off mode on Monday following a highly volatile short session on Friday.  Soybean trade's objective today was to fill the gap from Friday's hard open that left a 10-cent gap overhead on the chart.  Once that gap filled after the coffee break this morning, futures leaked lower throughout the entire day.  News has been routine as of late with only recycled headlines.  Lack of anything fresh typically triggers selling.  Weekly export inspections were strong for soybeans last week with 2.143 million tonnes, above the top trade estimate.  Soybean shipments have increased their pace and are now 20 million bushels below the pace necessary to meet the USDA's export target, versus 60 million the week prior. Corn and wheat shipments were within range but on the low end with 766k tonnes of corn and 251k tonnes of wheat inspected for shipment.  Corn shipments are now short of the pace needed to meet the USDA target by 153 million bushels compared to 151 million bushels the week prior.   In the blink of an eye, we're already less than 10 days away from our next WASDE report.  The December report is one that is always talked as unimportant with a lot of traders looking towards January for the final production numbers.  I hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving.

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.