Grain > Commentary > 11-29-2021

11/29/2021

Nov 29, 2021

11/29/2021
Money flow was in sell-off mode on Monday following a highly volatile short session on Friday.  Soybean trade's objective today was to fill the gap from Friday's hard open that left a 10-cent gap overhead on the chart.  Once that gap filled after the coffee break this morning, futures leaked lower throughout the entire day.  News has been routine as of late with only recycled headlines.  Lack of anything fresh typically triggers selling.  Weekly export inspections were strong for soybeans last week with 2.143 million tonnes, above the top trade estimate.  Soybean shipments have increased their pace and are now 20 million bushels below the pace necessary to meet the USDA's export target, versus 60 million the week prior. Corn and wheat shipments were within range but on the low end with 766k tonnes of corn and 251k tonnes of wheat inspected for shipment.  Corn shipments are now short of the pace needed to meet the USDA target by 153 million bushels compared to 151 million bushels the week prior.   In the blink of an eye, we're already less than 10 days away from our next WASDE report.  The December report is one that is always talked as unimportant with a lot of traders looking towards January for the final production numbers.  I hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving.

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.