11/27/2023

Nov 27, 2023


Corn and soybeans begin the week down as lower continues to be the path of least resistance. Grains as a whole were largely weaker with wheat double-digits lower and corn finishing with 5-7 cent losses and new 2 1/2 year lows. Soybeans ended the day mixed, within 1 cent of either side of unchanged. The biggest market mover has been the rains that materialized in Brazil over the holiday and weekend and brought good amounts of much needed moisture to some major producing areas but there are still some parts of the region only received light amounts. Soybeans have been their own market since harvest and we saw some excellent export demand develop earlier this month. Corn end-users and exporters appeared to find a couple months of coverage fairly easily during harvest on better than expected yields. Corn has been a follower and really needs its own story to develop. Corn demand should improve in December and any sort of issue in South America could see pricing goals met quickly.

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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.