11/27/2023

Nov 27, 2023


Corn and soybeans begin the week down as lower continues to be the path of least resistance. Grains as a whole were largely weaker with wheat double-digits lower and corn finishing with 5-7 cent losses and new 2 1/2 year lows. Soybeans ended the day mixed, within 1 cent of either side of unchanged. The biggest market mover has been the rains that materialized in Brazil over the holiday and weekend and brought good amounts of much needed moisture to some major producing areas but there are still some parts of the region only received light amounts. Soybeans have been their own market since harvest and we saw some excellent export demand develop earlier this month. Corn end-users and exporters appeared to find a couple months of coverage fairly easily during harvest on better than expected yields. Corn has been a follower and really needs its own story to develop. Corn demand should improve in December and any sort of issue in South America could see pricing goals met quickly.

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.