11/23/2020

Nov 23, 2020


11/23/2020
We have been talking about 12.00 Beans on the nearby futures for a while now and we finally hit that number in last night's overnight trading hours.  Renewed buying interest was sparking by spotty/scattered rainfalls in South America, as well as, a forecast that looks dryer than average in December and prospects of an ever-tightening carry out.  Soybean inspections were outstanding again this week. This is the 8th straight week with inspections topping 2 million tons. Inspections are ahead of the USDA pace by a staggering 397 million bushels.  The short-term pattern developing seems to be these rallies are met with some profit taking on the short side.  With a short holiday trading week with light volume you just never know.  All things considered, we should continue to grind higher on the beans if the weather in South America stays dry; 12.08 is our next target number, then 12.45.  We had a nice sized sale announcement in corn this morning of 334,000 metric tons.  As of late, there's still not much buzz around the corn market right now and it still feels like the corn rally is to make sure it is buying acres for next year.  China rumors from last week still have not been confirmed.  Don't be afraid to lock in some new crop corn for 2021 for over 4.00 futures, if this market turns a bit bearish on us.
 

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Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT.