Grain > Commentary > 11-23-2020

11/23/2020

Nov 23, 2020

11/23/2020
We have been talking about 12.00 Beans on the nearby futures for a while now and we finally hit that number in last night's overnight trading hours.  Renewed buying interest was sparking by spotty/scattered rainfalls in South America, as well as, a forecast that looks dryer than average in December and prospects of an ever-tightening carry out.  Soybean inspections were outstanding again this week. This is the 8th straight week with inspections topping 2 million tons. Inspections are ahead of the USDA pace by a staggering 397 million bushels.  The short-term pattern developing seems to be these rallies are met with some profit taking on the short side.  With a short holiday trading week with light volume you just never know.  All things considered, we should continue to grind higher on the beans if the weather in South America stays dry; 12.08 is our next target number, then 12.45.  We had a nice sized sale announcement in corn this morning of 334,000 metric tons.  As of late, there's still not much buzz around the corn market right now and it still feels like the corn rally is to make sure it is buying acres for next year.  China rumors from last week still have not been confirmed.  Don't be afraid to lock in some new crop corn for 2021 for over 4.00 futures, if this market turns a bit bearish on us.
 

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.