11/22/2023

Nov 22, 2023


Once again, soybeans were the price leader but trade was in heavy risk-off mode in soy.  Corn and soybeans bounced around between 1-3 cents lower overnight before selling took over after the morning break.  Rains materialized in spots across Brazil and private sources suggested record production in the country is still likely.  The internet is great for showing us the very best and the very worst of the Brazil soybeans, much like what we see across the states during the U.S. growing season.  Corn briefly traded 3 higher before ending the day before settling 1 lower down the board on the day.  The USDA announced two export sales this morning: 110,000 of soft red winter wheat to China and 128,000 tonnes of corn to unknown, both for delivery in the 2023/24 marketing year.  Weekly ethanol data showed a drop in production of 24,000 barrels/day to 1.023 mln/bpd and stocks rising 700,000 barrels to 21.7 mln barrels.  Both of these figures were negative and on the outside of trade expectations.  

Reminder:  Glacial Plains will be closed on Thursday and Friday for Thanksgiving.

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.