11/22/2021

Corn and soybeans were higher overnight and throughout the day session following a surge in the wheat markets. Friday's commitment of traders showed large spec funds had increased their long position in corn to an estimated 250k contracts, up from 232k the week prior and soybean net shorts had decreased to 3.8k from 16.4k as of 11/16/21. US export inspections for last week were on the weaker end of expectations for corn and soybeans with 618k tonnes of corn and 1.684 million tonnes of soybeans inspected for shipment. Wheat fell below target at 178k tonnes inspected. To date, corn shipments for the current marketing year are behind pace by 151 million bushels to meet the USDA export forecast and soybean shipments are behind pace by 60 million bushels. These are both increases from last week. Funds continue to ignore some bearish fundamentals in corn and soybeans. Wheat found renewed strength with flooding in Australia and a possible bigger issue in Europe than most are thinking. With US and European wheat futures trading at, or near, contract highs, it’s almost comical how quickly its forgotten the number of times we killed the US winter wheat crop last year. Conditions in South America continue to be ideal. Glacial Plains will be closed Thursday and Friday (Nov. 25 and 26) for Thanksgiving. Grain markets will trade a short session on Friday from 8:30am to 12:30pm, we can work a sell order for you that day if you like.
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For the folks with December hedges, Friday is the deadline to roll those hedges forward or set basis on your contract deliveries. 10 cents was the popular target prior to the November WASDE report. Given current market conditions, 8 cents might be the best we can squeeze out in just a few days' time.