11/20/2020

Nov 20, 2020


11/20/2020
We had a couple sales get announced this morning none of which are China again.  158,270 metric ton of corn to Mexico and 131,000 metric ton of corn to Unknown.  Overnight the markets were strong as beans tried once again to get to that infamous 12.00 future mark getting close at 11.9675.  But that’s not 12.00, so the target remains.  Corn got drug along with and managed to put in a triple top at 4.28 December futures.  A triple top is usually not a good sign, but since were still in the year 2020 anything rule of thumb can be violated.  As I said before let’s scale sales into this market and see where we end up averaging when it all over.  If you put all your eggs in one basket nothing is guaranteed.  Covid headlines continue to pile up, but so far the market has not reacted since it is so bulled up.  Be careful is all I am trying to say and do what is right for you and your business.  The bean spreads have moved into even money as the market has its belly full for now as export sales have slowed and the processor continues to feast off harvest bushels.  Corn spreads are steady at small carries as there is just enough movement to keep the market happy.  Get those Dec HTA and Basis contracts cleaned up be Wednesday next week.
 

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.