11/18/2022

Nov 18, 2022


11/18/2022
Soybeans go into the weekend with a solid bounce of 10-11 cents higher out into the August 2023 contract. Corn finished mixed, scattered from 1 lower to 1 higher, struggling to stray further than a couple cents from unchanged but managed to end the week just fractionally above the 200-day moving average on the front month chart. With next week likely seeing some light volume due to the holiday, the trade algorithms might see today's close as a buy signal and use the thin trade to push the corn market easier. Overall, today was slow for trade, there were no big headlines, reports, or USDA sale announcements to stimulate any fundamental moves. For the week, December corn finishes 8'4 cents up and January soybeans give up 21 cents.

Soybeans continue their long term consolidation between the June highs and July lows, finding trendline resistance and support this week. The breakout from this pattern will be large.
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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.