11/18/2022

Nov 18, 2022


11/18/2022
Soybeans go into the weekend with a solid bounce of 10-11 cents higher out into the August 2023 contract. Corn finished mixed, scattered from 1 lower to 1 higher, struggling to stray further than a couple cents from unchanged but managed to end the week just fractionally above the 200-day moving average on the front month chart. With next week likely seeing some light volume due to the holiday, the trade algorithms might see today's close as a buy signal and use the thin trade to push the corn market easier. Overall, today was slow for trade, there were no big headlines, reports, or USDA sale announcements to stimulate any fundamental moves. For the week, December corn finishes 8'4 cents up and January soybeans give up 21 cents.

Soybeans continue their long term consolidation between the June highs and July lows, finding trendline resistance and support this week. The breakout from this pattern will be large.
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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.