11/18/2021

Nov 18, 2021


11/18/2021
Soybeans and meal pullback after a sharp move higher the yesterday.  There was some green on the board going into the coffee break this morning but market felt a little overbought and toppy going into the day session.  A full dollar rally in seven days in soybeans is surely going to be met with some positions being offset and shorting.  The January contract settled back into the area that I am looking for the funds to defend with more technical buying.  The 1290-1295 futures area is the current target for cash sales.  The market appears very comfortable with December corn trading inside of the 565-580 range and it feels like there is quite a bit of energy capped underneath the 595 level from March 22 out to July 22.  A break higher out of our current trading range would likely see some $6.00 cash deliveries a possibility for the summer months.  For those interested, soybean meal is extremely overbought right now and needs a correction.  Anyone looking to cover usage needs should explore the 350.0 area on the January 22 contract.  Week export sales were just ok this last week with the net sales for corn, soybean, and wheat all within trade estimates.  There was 905k tonnes of corn, 1.383 million tonnes of soybeans, and 399k tonnes of wheat sold last week.  There were no 8am sale announcements this morning.

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.