11/18/2021

Nov 18, 2021


11/18/2021
Soybeans and meal pullback after a sharp move higher the yesterday.  There was some green on the board going into the coffee break this morning but market felt a little overbought and toppy going into the day session.  A full dollar rally in seven days in soybeans is surely going to be met with some positions being offset and shorting.  The January contract settled back into the area that I am looking for the funds to defend with more technical buying.  The 1290-1295 futures area is the current target for cash sales.  The market appears very comfortable with December corn trading inside of the 565-580 range and it feels like there is quite a bit of energy capped underneath the 595 level from March 22 out to July 22.  A break higher out of our current trading range would likely see some $6.00 cash deliveries a possibility for the summer months.  For those interested, soybean meal is extremely overbought right now and needs a correction.  Anyone looking to cover usage needs should explore the 350.0 area on the January 22 contract.  Week export sales were just ok this last week with the net sales for corn, soybean, and wheat all within trade estimates.  There was 905k tonnes of corn, 1.383 million tonnes of soybeans, and 399k tonnes of wheat sold last week.  There were no 8am sale announcements this morning.

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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.