11/18/2021

Nov 18, 2021


11/18/2021
Soybeans and meal pullback after a sharp move higher the yesterday.  There was some green on the board going into the coffee break this morning but market felt a little overbought and toppy going into the day session.  A full dollar rally in seven days in soybeans is surely going to be met with some positions being offset and shorting.  The January contract settled back into the area that I am looking for the funds to defend with more technical buying.  The 1290-1295 futures area is the current target for cash sales.  The market appears very comfortable with December corn trading inside of the 565-580 range and it feels like there is quite a bit of energy capped underneath the 595 level from March 22 out to July 22.  A break higher out of our current trading range would likely see some $6.00 cash deliveries a possibility for the summer months.  For those interested, soybean meal is extremely overbought right now and needs a correction.  Anyone looking to cover usage needs should explore the 350.0 area on the January 22 contract.  Week export sales were just ok this last week with the net sales for corn, soybean, and wheat all within trade estimates.  There was 905k tonnes of corn, 1.383 million tonnes of soybeans, and 399k tonnes of wheat sold last week.  There were no 8am sale announcements this morning.

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Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.