Grain > Commentary > 11-18-2020

11/18/2020

Nov 18, 2020

11/18/2020
We did have an export sale announcement this morning, which was 140,000 tons of corn to Unknown.  That is not the rumored China confirmations we were looking for.  Corn and beans both made new highs today on continued export optimism and continued managed money buying.  Corn made a double top at 4.28 December futures before fading slightly into the close and finishing up a nickel on the day.  Beans traded all the way up to a tick short of 11.90 futures as we seemed poised to get to the 12.00 mark this week.  This market could continue to move higher especially soybeans, but I think it is important to take a look at current levels (both old and new crop) and make sure you get something covered.  This is a dream come true and I am guessing the bankers would also be happy to see some sales on the books at current levels.  There are a number of unknowns driving this market and nothing is written in stone.  The main unknown factors I speak of are Covid, SA weather, China and overall demand.  Anyone of these could be a game changer at any point in time with a single headline.  Be careful and weigh risk vs reward as you operate your individual business plans.
 

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2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.