11/18/2020

Nov 18, 2020


11/18/2020
We did have an export sale announcement this morning, which was 140,000 tons of corn to Unknown.  That is not the rumored China confirmations we were looking for.  Corn and beans both made new highs today on continued export optimism and continued managed money buying.  Corn made a double top at 4.28 December futures before fading slightly into the close and finishing up a nickel on the day.  Beans traded all the way up to a tick short of 11.90 futures as we seemed poised to get to the 12.00 mark this week.  This market could continue to move higher especially soybeans, but I think it is important to take a look at current levels (both old and new crop) and make sure you get something covered.  This is a dream come true and I am guessing the bankers would also be happy to see some sales on the books at current levels.  There are a number of unknowns driving this market and nothing is written in stone.  The main unknown factors I speak of are Covid, SA weather, China and overall demand.  Anyone of these could be a game changer at any point in time with a single headline.  Be careful and weigh risk vs reward as you operate your individual business plans.
 

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Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT.