11/18/2020

Nov 18, 2020


11/18/2020
We did have an export sale announcement this morning, which was 140,000 tons of corn to Unknown.  That is not the rumored China confirmations we were looking for.  Corn and beans both made new highs today on continued export optimism and continued managed money buying.  Corn made a double top at 4.28 December futures before fading slightly into the close and finishing up a nickel on the day.  Beans traded all the way up to a tick short of 11.90 futures as we seemed poised to get to the 12.00 mark this week.  This market could continue to move higher especially soybeans, but I think it is important to take a look at current levels (both old and new crop) and make sure you get something covered.  This is a dream come true and I am guessing the bankers would also be happy to see some sales on the books at current levels.  There are a number of unknowns driving this market and nothing is written in stone.  The main unknown factors I speak of are Covid, SA weather, China and overall demand.  Anyone of these could be a game changer at any point in time with a single headline.  Be careful and weigh risk vs reward as you operate your individual business plans.
 

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May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.
Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.
Mar 11, 2025
The monthly USDA WASDE report was today and it was about as boring as it can get.  The USDA took the month off leaving corn and beans carryouts unchanged.  Corn remains at 1.540 billion bushels and beans at 380 million bushels.  World ending stocks were slightly lowered on both corn and beans.  World corn was pegged at 288.94 million tonnes vs 290.3 million tonnes previously.  World beans were pegged at 121.4 million tonnes vs 124.3 million tonnes previously.  All of the South American crop production estimates were also left unchanged.