Grain > Commentary > 11-17-2022

11/17/2022

Nov 17, 2022

11/17/2022
Grains were lower for a majority of the session but corn was able to flip the front months higher late in the day. Soybeans also made an impressive recovery off of their intraday lows, ending the day 10-12 cents lower after trading 20-23 cents down. No major news or headlines for corn today as the path of least resistance remains to the downside but still holding technical support above 650'0. Soybeans reeled back today as conditions improved in Argentina with some scattered rains and Brazil weather is steadily favorable for crop development. After weeks of modest volumes, last week's export sales impressed. The weekly report showed corn sales netting 1.17 mln tonnes and soybeans outperforming estimates in a big way at 3.03 mln tonnes. We were confident that last week's sudden down turn in the markets would be what we needed to get fresh demand rolling in and it appears to have done that.

Trade has been defending the downside in corn all week, ping-ponging between the 100 and 200 day moving averages. This week’s price action has been anything but bearish. Ending the week above the 200-day average would be good support going into a holiday week that will likely feature light volume.
corn-chart.png

Read More News

1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.