11/17/2022

Nov 17, 2022


11/17/2022
Grains were lower for a majority of the session but corn was able to flip the front months higher late in the day. Soybeans also made an impressive recovery off of their intraday lows, ending the day 10-12 cents lower after trading 20-23 cents down. No major news or headlines for corn today as the path of least resistance remains to the downside but still holding technical support above 650'0. Soybeans reeled back today as conditions improved in Argentina with some scattered rains and Brazil weather is steadily favorable for crop development. After weeks of modest volumes, last week's export sales impressed. The weekly report showed corn sales netting 1.17 mln tonnes and soybeans outperforming estimates in a big way at 3.03 mln tonnes. We were confident that last week's sudden down turn in the markets would be what we needed to get fresh demand rolling in and it appears to have done that.

Trade has been defending the downside in corn all week, ping-ponging between the 100 and 200 day moving averages. This week’s price action has been anything but bearish. Ending the week above the 200-day average would be good support going into a holiday week that will likely feature light volume.
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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.