11/17/2020

Nov 17, 2020


11/17/2020
USDA announced a sale of 195 mt US corn to Mexico. Still no new US corn or soybean sales to China despite rumors of them buying both corn and beans as of late.  Corn was rumored of 500,000 MT out of the gulf yesterday, but nothing got confirmed.  Corn bids on the rail have disappeared as freight fell apart and are still not very well defined today.  Processors continue to improve basis locally as new corn movement likely won’t happen until the winter months.  Corn support today came from the firm soybeans market and Brazil weather concerns for the safrinha planting which begins after soy harvest.  Beans are the story at the moment and will be for a while as a 190 million carryout is tight and that might be getting tighter by the day.  We are in rationing mode and higher prices may be needed if this carryout or less is realized.  US corn harvest this past week moved to 95% complete, while bean harvest is now at 96% complete.  For those of you with corn HTA's left in the Dec we are running out of time and the spread is tightening back up as the board moves higher.  For those of you with corn basis contracts under the Dec you are also running out time, but the spread tightening is working in your favor.  We have until the Nov 25th to get the Dec futures cleaned up.
 

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.