Grain > Commentary > 11-16-2023

11/16/2023

Nov 16, 2023

Corn was the lone bright spot in trade today with finishes ranging from 3 to 5 cents higher.  Almost every other ag commodity was lower.  The soy complex as a whole was down and featured soybeans sharply lower with 17-24 cent losses.  At 8 a.m. this morning, the USDA confirmed the sale of 220,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to unknown during the 2023/24 marketing year.  The weekly export sales report was a weekly sales record for soybeans with 3.918 mln tonnes sold.  This was within the range of expectations following last week's large sale announcements.  Corn out-performed expectations with 1.8 mln tonnes sold.  Corn and soybeans both made leaps towards catching up to their sales paces needed to meet their USDA targets.  Corn improved from 48 million bushels short to 10 million bushels short.  Soybeans improved from 170 million bushels short to 51 million bushels short.

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.