11/16/2023

Nov 16, 2023


Corn was the lone bright spot in trade today with finishes ranging from 3 to 5 cents higher.  Almost every other ag commodity was lower.  The soy complex as a whole was down and featured soybeans sharply lower with 17-24 cent losses.  At 8 a.m. this morning, the USDA confirmed the sale of 220,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to unknown during the 2023/24 marketing year.  The weekly export sales report was a weekly sales record for soybeans with 3.918 mln tonnes sold.  This was within the range of expectations following last week's large sale announcements.  Corn out-performed expectations with 1.8 mln tonnes sold.  Corn and soybeans both made leaps towards catching up to their sales paces needed to meet their USDA targets.  Corn improved from 48 million bushels short to 10 million bushels short.  Soybeans improved from 170 million bushels short to 51 million bushels short.

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.