11/16/2023

Nov 16, 2023


Corn was the lone bright spot in trade today with finishes ranging from 3 to 5 cents higher.  Almost every other ag commodity was lower.  The soy complex as a whole was down and featured soybeans sharply lower with 17-24 cent losses.  At 8 a.m. this morning, the USDA confirmed the sale of 220,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to unknown during the 2023/24 marketing year.  The weekly export sales report was a weekly sales record for soybeans with 3.918 mln tonnes sold.  This was within the range of expectations following last week's large sale announcements.  Corn out-performed expectations with 1.8 mln tonnes sold.  Corn and soybeans both made leaps towards catching up to their sales paces needed to meet their USDA targets.  Corn improved from 48 million bushels short to 10 million bushels short.  Soybeans improved from 170 million bushels short to 51 million bushels short.

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Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.