Grain > Commentary > 11-16-2022

11/16/2022

Nov 16, 2022

11/16/2022
Just when it looked like we were ready to turn the market around following yesterday's war headline, bullish sentiment for the market was vaporized almost immediately.  Conflicting reports over what really happened between Ukraine, Russia, and Poland pressured the markets to trade exclusively lower throughout the session.  Corn has managed to hold the 650 level and soybeans have held 1400, so far.  These areas are important to maintain as we go towards December and into our final production report in January.  Weekly ethanol data showed output down 40,000 barrels/day to 1.01 mln bpd.  Stocks were also off, dropping 894,000 barrels to 21.3 mln bbls.  The USDA announced two sales this morning.  First, 150,000 tonnes of hard red spring wheat for delivery to Iraq during the 2022/23 marketing year.  Second was a large sale to Mexico that totalled 1,866,900 tonnes of corn.  1,242,060 tonnes for delivery in 2022/23 and 624,840 tonnes for delivery in the 2023/24.  While on the surface this large sale may appear supportive, business to Mexico is almost entirely routine.

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9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.