Grain > Commentary > 11-16-2022

11/16/2022

Nov 16, 2022

11/16/2022
Just when it looked like we were ready to turn the market around following yesterday's war headline, bullish sentiment for the market was vaporized almost immediately.  Conflicting reports over what really happened between Ukraine, Russia, and Poland pressured the markets to trade exclusively lower throughout the session.  Corn has managed to hold the 650 level and soybeans have held 1400, so far.  These areas are important to maintain as we go towards December and into our final production report in January.  Weekly ethanol data showed output down 40,000 barrels/day to 1.01 mln bpd.  Stocks were also off, dropping 894,000 barrels to 21.3 mln bbls.  The USDA announced two sales this morning.  First, 150,000 tonnes of hard red spring wheat for delivery to Iraq during the 2022/23 marketing year.  Second was a large sale to Mexico that totalled 1,866,900 tonnes of corn.  1,242,060 tonnes for delivery in 2022/23 and 624,840 tonnes for delivery in the 2023/24.  While on the surface this large sale may appear supportive, business to Mexico is almost entirely routine.

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2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.