11/16/2022

Nov 16, 2022


11/16/2022
Just when it looked like we were ready to turn the market around following yesterday's war headline, bullish sentiment for the market was vaporized almost immediately.  Conflicting reports over what really happened between Ukraine, Russia, and Poland pressured the markets to trade exclusively lower throughout the session.  Corn has managed to hold the 650 level and soybeans have held 1400, so far.  These areas are important to maintain as we go towards December and into our final production report in January.  Weekly ethanol data showed output down 40,000 barrels/day to 1.01 mln bpd.  Stocks were also off, dropping 894,000 barrels to 21.3 mln bbls.  The USDA announced two sales this morning.  First, 150,000 tonnes of hard red spring wheat for delivery to Iraq during the 2022/23 marketing year.  Second was a large sale to Mexico that totalled 1,866,900 tonnes of corn.  1,242,060 tonnes for delivery in 2022/23 and 624,840 tonnes for delivery in the 2023/24.  While on the surface this large sale may appear supportive, business to Mexico is almost entirely routine.

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.