11/16/2022

Nov 16, 2022


11/16/2022
Just when it looked like we were ready to turn the market around following yesterday's war headline, bullish sentiment for the market was vaporized almost immediately.  Conflicting reports over what really happened between Ukraine, Russia, and Poland pressured the markets to trade exclusively lower throughout the session.  Corn has managed to hold the 650 level and soybeans have held 1400, so far.  These areas are important to maintain as we go towards December and into our final production report in January.  Weekly ethanol data showed output down 40,000 barrels/day to 1.01 mln bpd.  Stocks were also off, dropping 894,000 barrels to 21.3 mln bbls.  The USDA announced two sales this morning.  First, 150,000 tonnes of hard red spring wheat for delivery to Iraq during the 2022/23 marketing year.  Second was a large sale to Mexico that totalled 1,866,900 tonnes of corn.  1,242,060 tonnes for delivery in 2022/23 and 624,840 tonnes for delivery in the 2023/24.  While on the surface this large sale may appear supportive, business to Mexico is almost entirely routine.

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Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT.