Grain > Commentary > 11-16-2021

11/16/2021

Nov 16, 2021

11/16/2021
Some big risk off in the grains today with wheat leading the day lower.  A bit of warning sign in wheat demand today with some international wheat tenders beginning to cancel due to the sharp rally in wheat prices.  Corn and soybeans have borrowed a fair amount of support from the wheat sector so to see them trailing wheat lower isn't a surprise.  Corn, soybeans, and wheat all seem to have some overstated export demand from the USDA.  Corn is well behind the pace needed to meet its USDA forecast and soybeans will begin to battle with a big South American crop earlier than usual.  Wheat export demand is slow and the US logistics has turned its focus to soybeans.  The USDA made two sale announcements at 8 am this morning, both for the 2021/22 marketing year: 270,000 tonnes of corn to Mexico and 161,000 tonnes of soybeans to unknown.  The corn and soybean front month contract have both found trend line resistance to start the week along with the 50-day moving average in January adding an extra hurdle for soybeans.  New crop 2022 corn continues to trade near the contract high and new crop 2022 soybeans have a potential triple top on the November chart around the 1250 area.  Looking out into the deferred months for the 2021 crop, the March 2022 corn contract first traded on December 13, 2019 and has posted a close above today's a total of only 27 times in about two years.

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
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9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.