11/15/2022

Nov 15, 2022


11/15/2022
Today looked like it was going to end quietly higher in corn and soybeans on simple short covering following our recent downtrend.  Just after 12-noon, it was reported a stray Russian missile had struck inside the Polish border.  This is significant because Poland is a NATO member.  The market reacted with December corn trading 18 higher and January soybeans 24 higher before easing back towards more modest gains on the day.  Corn finished 6-10 higher and soybeans 11-13 higher.  This morning, the USDA announced two sales to Mexico for delivery in the 2022/23 marketing year: 230,185 tonnes of corn and 261,272 tonnes of soybeans.  The NOPA Crush for October was reported at 184.464 million bushels, spot on with trade expectations.  Soy oil stocks came in at 1.528bln lbs, just below the 1.535B estimate.  It's always the darkest before dawn and we are getting into a timeframe where we see the seasonal trend for corn reverse up and today's war headline may be enough to get us started.

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.