11/15/2022

Nov 15, 2022


11/15/2022
Today looked like it was going to end quietly higher in corn and soybeans on simple short covering following our recent downtrend.  Just after 12-noon, it was reported a stray Russian missile had struck inside the Polish border.  This is significant because Poland is a NATO member.  The market reacted with December corn trading 18 higher and January soybeans 24 higher before easing back towards more modest gains on the day.  Corn finished 6-10 higher and soybeans 11-13 higher.  This morning, the USDA announced two sales to Mexico for delivery in the 2022/23 marketing year: 230,185 tonnes of corn and 261,272 tonnes of soybeans.  The NOPA Crush for October was reported at 184.464 million bushels, spot on with trade expectations.  Soy oil stocks came in at 1.528bln lbs, just below the 1.535B estimate.  It's always the darkest before dawn and we are getting into a timeframe where we see the seasonal trend for corn reverse up and today's war headline may be enough to get us started.

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Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.