Grain > Commentary > 11-14-2023

11/14/2023

Nov 14, 2023

Persistent buying resulted in higher finishes in corn and soybeans following Monday's strong move.  After spending most of the overnight in lower trade, the 8:30 re-open brought with it more buying as trade wants to put some extra weather premium into the market with concerns on South American growing conditions.  This is the opportunity we have been expecting in soybeans but we should never bet on a drought in the rain forest.  Brazil has added a lot of production area and to be trading Brazil weather in November is like trading U.S. weather in June.  We had another sale announcement this morning with the USDA confirming 101,745 tonnes of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2023/24 marketing year.  Corn trade looks even more encouraging with today's follow-through buying after a huge reversal higher yesterday.  Soybeans continue to climb away from the harvest lows, setting a fresh 2-month high today.  There should be a nice opportunity for pricing corn between today and the start of 2024.  When that time comes, sales for the 2024 crop should be considered at the same time.

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2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
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1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.