Grain > Commentary > 11-14-2023

11/14/2023

Nov 14, 2023

Persistent buying resulted in higher finishes in corn and soybeans following Monday's strong move.  After spending most of the overnight in lower trade, the 8:30 re-open brought with it more buying as trade wants to put some extra weather premium into the market with concerns on South American growing conditions.  This is the opportunity we have been expecting in soybeans but we should never bet on a drought in the rain forest.  Brazil has added a lot of production area and to be trading Brazil weather in November is like trading U.S. weather in June.  We had another sale announcement this morning with the USDA confirming 101,745 tonnes of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2023/24 marketing year.  Corn trade looks even more encouraging with today's follow-through buying after a huge reversal higher yesterday.  Soybeans continue to climb away from the harvest lows, setting a fresh 2-month high today.  There should be a nice opportunity for pricing corn between today and the start of 2024.  When that time comes, sales for the 2024 crop should be considered at the same time.

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.