11/12/2021

Nov 12, 2021


11/12/2021
Corn and soybeans surge going into the weekend with soybeans posting 20+ cent gains to finish the week strong.  The USDA made an 8am sale announcement of 256,930 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to unknown during the 2021/22 marketing year.  Weekly export sales for corn were mid-range with 1.067 million tonnes sold.  Soybean and wheat net sales were within range but towards the low end, with 1.289 mmt of soybeans and 289k tonnes of wheat sold last week.  Double-digit gains in soybean meal provided the big push in soybeans futures today.  Corn strength following Tuesday's report has been provided mostly by China's domestic corn price which has rallied as of late.  Some see this as a sign that China will be entering the market soon but China's state government has encouraged citizens to stockpile and that sounds like something you do when you're preparing to cut yourself off from the rest of the world.  A quick look at the technical charts shows corn and soybeans found some quick resistance at the overhead trend lines today and did not test them.  If you did not do a round of sales at these levels two weeks ago, I'm a seller here.  Otherwise, patience could be beneficial to see if there is enough momentum to break us out higher.  

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.