11/12/2021

Nov 12, 2021


11/12/2021
Corn and soybeans surge going into the weekend with soybeans posting 20+ cent gains to finish the week strong.  The USDA made an 8am sale announcement of 256,930 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to unknown during the 2021/22 marketing year.  Weekly export sales for corn were mid-range with 1.067 million tonnes sold.  Soybean and wheat net sales were within range but towards the low end, with 1.289 mmt of soybeans and 289k tonnes of wheat sold last week.  Double-digit gains in soybean meal provided the big push in soybeans futures today.  Corn strength following Tuesday's report has been provided mostly by China's domestic corn price which has rallied as of late.  Some see this as a sign that China will be entering the market soon but China's state government has encouraged citizens to stockpile and that sounds like something you do when you're preparing to cut yourself off from the rest of the world.  A quick look at the technical charts shows corn and soybeans found some quick resistance at the overhead trend lines today and did not test them.  If you did not do a round of sales at these levels two weeks ago, I'm a seller here.  Otherwise, patience could be beneficial to see if there is enough momentum to break us out higher.  

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May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.
Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.
Mar 11, 2025
The monthly USDA WASDE report was today and it was about as boring as it can get.  The USDA took the month off leaving corn and beans carryouts unchanged.  Corn remains at 1.540 billion bushels and beans at 380 million bushels.  World ending stocks were slightly lowered on both corn and beans.  World corn was pegged at 288.94 million tonnes vs 290.3 million tonnes previously.  World beans were pegged at 121.4 million tonnes vs 124.3 million tonnes previously.  All of the South American crop production estimates were also left unchanged.