11/12/2020

Nov 12, 2020


11/12/2020
Today was a correction day in Chicago as futures came down from their new highs on Wednesday and the nearby corn returned to their pre-WASDE report price levels.  What we mainly see right now is speculators and funds taking this opportunity for profit taking to liquidate some of their long positions.  Funds are currently estimated long contracts 340,000 of corn and 280,000 of soybeans alone.  New sale announcements have been quiet lately and the bulls need to be fed daily.  Covid headlines continue to be worrisome as a national shutdown continues to be talked about.  Farmer selling was fairly quiet again today, which is not a surprise as the charts and fundamentals still look well supported.  The market cannot go up every day even in a bull market.  Tomorrow we will get export sale numbers at 7:30 am, but I would expect another quiet day.  
 

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.